The Lingering Danger Between India and Pakistan: A Volatile Peace

 

Introduction

More than seven decades after their partition in 1947, India and Pakistan continue to live under the shadow of conflict. Despite numerous efforts at peace and diplomacy, the relationship remains one of the most volatile in South Asia — if not the world. From border skirmishes to the threat of nuclear escalation, the danger has never truly gone away.

1. Historical Baggage

The core of the tension lies in the traumatic birth of the two nations. The partition led to massive communal violence and the displacement of millions. Since then, India and Pakistan have fought four wars — in 1947, 1965, 1971, and the Kargil conflict in 1999. Kashmir has remained the biggest flashpoint, a region claimed by both and held in parts.

2. The Kashmir Issue: An Unresolved Fire

Kashmir remains a symbolic and strategic concern for both countries. India's 2019 move to revoke Article 370, stripping Jammu & Kashmir of its special status, was seen by Pakistan as a unilateral and provocative act. Since then, cross-border tensions and rhetoric have only intensified.

3. Terrorism and Proxy Warfare

Pakistan has been accused of harboring terrorist groups that target India, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. The 2001 Indian Parliament attack, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, and the 2019 Pulwama suicide bombing all worsened the trust deficit. India has responded with military actions like the 2016 "surgical strikes" and the 2019 Balakot airstrike.

4. Nuclear Shadow

Both India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed nations. This makes any escalation extremely dangerous for regional and global security. Even minor incidents have the potential to spiral out of control. The doctrine of "minimum credible deterrence" adopted by both sides keeps tensions manageable, but not safe.

5. Diplomatic Deadlock

Attempts at dialogue, such as the Agra Summit or the composite dialogue process, have repeatedly collapsed due to political changes, terror attacks, or mutual distrust. Track II diplomacy and people-to-people exchanges have not been strong enough to overcome deep-rooted hostility.

6. The Role of Global Powers

International actors like the United States, China, and Russia have stakes in South Asia. While they often push for de-escalation, they also sometimes deepen divisions through defense deals or strategic partnerships. China's closeness with Pakistan and border tensions with India add a new layer of complexity.

7. Media and Public Opinion

Both Indian and Pakistani media often fuel nationalistic sentiments. The portrayal of the "enemy" becomes more important than balanced journalism. Politicians in both countries sometimes use anti-neighbor rhetoric for domestic political gains.

Conclusion

While there is no immediate war on the horizon, the India-Pakistan relationship remains fragile and unpredictable. The risk lies not only in declared wars but in misunderstandings, proxy attacks, and unplanned escalations. True peace will require political courage, historical reconciliation, and sustained dialogue — none of which seem forthcoming right now.

Covered By : Yuvraj Shah